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Friday, August 13, 2010

Tropical storm outlook

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N40W TO 9N32W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE APPEARS BETTER DEFINED IN THE MID-LEVELS INDICATED BY 700 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS FROM GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS...NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 23N59W TO 11N63W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NRN EXTENT OF THE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NW OF THE WAVE PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 56W-61W. ISOLATE MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 62W-63W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N71W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N80W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN IN WHICH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING UP ACROSS JAMAICA AND ERN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-85W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W ALONG 6N22W 8N31W 4N44W 8N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM WITHIN EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N BETWEEN 81W-93W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF 93W TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE WHICH CONTINUE TO FORM A BROAD CIRCULATION INLAND OVER SRN MISSISSIPPI. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE GULF AND INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N83W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF FURTHER SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF CENTERED E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE DRIFT FARTHER INLAND WHILE SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WRN CUBA FROM 24N81W TO 21N82W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITH DRY AIR MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO N OF PANAMA. A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE ESPECIALLY NOTED OVER JAMAICA. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-85W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 11N. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS NE OF THE ISLANDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 62W-63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS MOVES W-NW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 62W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SUPPORTING BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA TO N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INCREASING CONVECTION FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 56W-61W NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 50W-54W. FARTHER E...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED A 1027 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 38N28W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA E OF 37W S OF 35N PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 38W-53WW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE RIDGE N OF 20N WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE S CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

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