TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 520 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EARL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EARL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. water restoration certification
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Hazardous Weather Outlook for chicago
Hazardous Weather Outlook for chicago
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 88. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.
Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. South southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. West southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 83.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 69.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 88.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 69.
Tuesday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 86.
Tuesday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 82.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 81.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
What is a fire support coordination line?
What is a fire support coordination line?
A fire support coordinating measure that is established and adjusted by appropriate land or amphibious force commanders within their boundaries in consultation with superior, subordinate, supporting, and affected commanders.
Fire support coordination lines (FSCLs) facilitate the expeditious attack of surface targets of opportunity beyond the coordinating measure.
An FSCL does not divide an area of operations by defining a boundary between close and deep operations or a zone for close air support.
The FSCL applies to all fires of air, land, and sea-based weapons systems using any type of ammunition.
Forces attacking targets beyond an FSCL must inform all affected commanders in sufficient time to allow necessary reaction to avoid fratricide.
Supporting elements attacking targets beyond the FSCL must ensure that the attack will not produce adverse attacks on, or to the rear of, the line.
Short of an FSCL, all air-to-ground and surface-to-surface attack operations are controlled by the appropriate land or amphibious force commander.
The FSCL should follow well-defined terrain features.
Coordination of attacks beyond the FSCL is especially critical to commanders of air, land, and special operations forces.
In exceptional circumstances, the inability to conduct this coordination will not preclude the attack of targets beyond the FSCL.
However, failure to do so may increase the risk of fratricide and could waste limited resources. Also called FSCL.See also fires; fire support.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. water restoration certification
Monday, August 16, 2010
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
410 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND MOSTLY REMOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CHICAGO
Friday, August 13, 2010
Tropical storm outlook
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N40W TO 9N32W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE APPEARS BETTER DEFINED IN THE MID-LEVELS INDICATED BY 700 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS FROM GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS...NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 23N59W TO 11N63W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NRN EXTENT OF THE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NW OF THE WAVE PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 56W-61W. ISOLATE MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 62W-63W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N71W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N80W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN IN WHICH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING UP ACROSS JAMAICA AND ERN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-85W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W ALONG 6N22W 8N31W 4N44W 8N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM WITHIN EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N BETWEEN 81W-93W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF 93W TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE WHICH CONTINUE TO FORM A BROAD CIRCULATION INLAND OVER SRN MISSISSIPPI. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE GULF AND INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N83W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF FURTHER SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF CENTERED E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE DRIFT FARTHER INLAND WHILE SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WRN CUBA FROM 24N81W TO 21N82W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITH DRY AIR MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO N OF PANAMA. A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE ESPECIALLY NOTED OVER JAMAICA. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 73W-85W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA ALONG 11N. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS NE OF THE ISLANDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 62W-63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS MOVES W-NW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 62W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SUPPORTING BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA TO N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INCREASING CONVECTION FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 56W-61W NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 50W-54W. FARTHER E...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED A 1027 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 38N28W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA E OF 37W S OF 35N PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 38W-53WW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE RIDGE N OF 20N WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE S CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
The rain would be a welcomed sight, since Long Island has not had a decent, widespread soaking in about two weeks (remember the tornado warnings?
With high pressure anchored offshore, expect the humidity to be fairly high for the next couple of days. Temperatures on the other hand will be more August-like, a little above normal but not excessive. Highs of 85-90 will be the rule into the weekend. There is a slight chance of a stray thunderstorm on Wednesday, but the bigger story is the possibility of strong storms as a cold front traverses the region on Thursday. Primarily, forecasters are keeping an eye on the possibility of gusty winds with these storms, but since the atmosphere is juicy once again, heavy rain is a good bet in any of these storms. The rain would be a welcomed sight, since Long Island has not had a decent, widespread soaking in about two weeks (remember the tornado warnings?).
Beyond that, heading into the weekend, so far expect another decent weekend. Warm temperatures and low humidity are expected with no rain around (with an exception?) until some time early next week. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s Islandwide Friday through Sunday. Keep in mind, there is a fly in the ointment, as some computer guidance is showing a secondary cold front on Friday which could cause a scattered thunderstorm late in the day.
On Tuesday, all eyes from the National Hurricane Center and the weather world were on Tropical Storm Colin which was finally named Tuesday morning based on estimates of sustained winds at 40 mph. By the end of the day the Hurricane Center issued its last advisory for now on Colin, describing it as a remnant low. There is a possibility that Colin's remains could regenerate in the next few days, which some computer model guidance suggests. If that's the case, the storm still needs monitoring. The dynamics of the atrmosphere around the storm and in its projected path are not conducive for a strong tropical system. The possibility of a severe hit from this storm on Long Island, other than, say, a few hours of heavy rain, is slim.
http://www.flooddamagelongisland.com/