Forced to evacuate because of a rising Assiniboine River, a Brandon-area family fears it might not be allowed to return home until the New Year.
Rae Gelineau, along with her husband, their two-year-old twins, and her parents (who live next door), have been uprooted thanks to unseasonable winter flooding near their homes. Ice jams have caused the river to rise up against the backs of their farmhouses and unless a significant freeze takes place over the next two weeks, Gelineau worries they won't be able to return before Christmas.
"It looks like it may be long-term," she said Thursday. "No one really knows anything. We may not get to go home this winter and there may not be anything left in the spring if it floods badly.
"It's just...it's not a good situation."
But it's the reality this December as the province deals with the uncharted territory of winter flooding, forcing officials to research the situation on the fly.
Things are so tense in the area the RM of Cornwallis (which surrounds Brandon to the west, south and east) declared a state of emergency Wednesday. David Smith, emergency co-ordinator for the rural municipality, said the river near Gelineau's farm is about four to eight feet higher than normal thanks to an ice jam further downstream, and while the water has levelled off over the last 24 hours, concern is already starting to grow about what will happen come spring.
"There is some real worry about how things will look come March and April," Smith said.
Philip Mutulu, the provincial flood forecaster, has spent some time driving up and down the winding Assiniboine, talking with residents near the river to get a better idea of what the specific challenges are and how best to solve them.
According to Mutulu, the volume of water in the Assiniboine has not increased and the province has not been releasing water from the Shellmouth reservoir. He's hopeful the water levels will slowly come down as the weekend temperatures drop to overnight lows in the -25 C range, but warns more isolated jams could continue to cause problems.
"Until the river freezes, it's going to be something we'll have to monitor," he cautioned.
Despite the water levels in the Assiniboine Valley levelling off, a high-water advisory issued last week by Manitoba Water Stewardship for the stretch of river running from the Shellmouth reservoir east to Headingley remains in place. With the possibility of ice jams present, residents in low-lying areas between those points should remain on alert.
Mutulu added "it doesn't look like" Winnipeg will experience any winter flooding from the Assiniboine this season and wouldn't speculate on what the current situation will mean for the province this spring.
Meanwhile, the winter view for Gelineau now features ice about about two feet thick sitting against the back of her home. The ice is doing significant damage as the river water pushes it around the property.
She figures the Assiniboine River would normally be about 60 to 90 metres from her home.
Gelineau worries the flow of icy water behind her acreage is moving so fast it might not freeze at all.
"There are people who have been here for 54 years and they haven't seen this before," she said. "One guy has been here even longer and he has never seen anything like this. The government officials who have been out here have never had to deal with anything like this, either."
Gelineau says she's asked emergency crews point-blank if this flooding was something her family should have accounted for before moving into the home three years ago.
The answer: "Absolutely not."
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